By Dr. Tariq Mahmood
Aslam o Alaikum Javeed,
Recent Earthquakes and Their Causes
A long time has passed—no letter, no message. Perhaps you have settled abroad, found new friends, or family responsibilities have taken over.
Well, when you stopped writing, I too abandoned it. Now it even feels as though God Himself is displeased. When floods subside, earthquakes strike; when not disasters, then wars erupt.
Dear Brother,
Last month, at the junction of the Karakoram and Hindu Kush mountains lies a fault line known as the Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT). Though it has remained silent since the last days of the dinosaurs, its underlying subsidiary faults constantly release energy because the Indian Plate keeps subducting beneath the Karakoram Plate.
This subduction creates locked areas where other auxiliary faults converge. These either release energy collectively or transfer accumulated stress toward their nearby “syntaxis” (knot), triggering local earthquakes.
Such is the current state of the Kabul Knot 🪢. From the northeast, the MKT travels along the Chitral River toward Jalalabad, Afghanistan, and then further east to Peshawar. At Jalalabad, several faults from the east merge:
- MMT (Main Mantle Thrust)
- MCT (Main Central Thrust)
- PT (Panjal Thrust)
- MBT (Main Boundary Thrust)
From the west, the Herat Fault joins, and from the south, the Chaman Fault. Together they form a massive knot 🪢, around which more than 20 earthquakes have occurred along the MKT in just the past week.
From the north, the Badakhshan Fault also merges here. The western Karakoram region, called the Nuristan Block, lies between the MKT and the Badakhshan Fault.
In the past month, more than 10 earthquakes struck near Garam Chashma in northwest Chitral. This is a huge number for such a short span. Energy released here accumulated around Nangarhar near Jalalabad and is still being discharged. Because of this knot, all these quakes originated in the upper crust. Though their magnitudes were not very high, their shallow depths caused severe damage.
Now a challenge looms: this knot 🪢 channels energy into eastern fault lines that extend into Pakistan. Having absorbed this stress, they may trigger a much larger earthquake.
Evidence of this appeared today at 1:35 PM when a magnitude 4 quake struck Himachal Pradesh along the Panjal Thrust. This means that at any time, fault lines near Islamabad, Muzaffarabad, Balakot, Bisham, and Swat could become active.
The recent floods’ destruction was also partly due to these earthquakes. Massive boulders dislodged into streams and rivers, intensifying the flooding and devastation.
Geological maps and details of these locations, along with earthquake lists, have been provided.
Whatever the disaster—earthquake or flood—may Allah protect us all, and grant us health, justice, and a life of faith.
Note: This is the personal observation of the writer Tariq Mahmood. Anyone may draw conclusions from this dataset. Apologies in advance for any spelling or grammatical errors.
“This is a translated version of Tariq Mahmood’s original Urdu text.” (Original post available on FB Page and in WhatsApp group.)
